Mar

17

Investing Systems Research Lab Blog for Week of March 19th, 2012

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Welcome Research Lab Members…

As you know, we have been watching the Russell 2000 here on the blog for a few weeks to get a gauge of what’s going on under the surface of the market.

Of course we all know the DOW and S&P and NASDAQ made new highs last week, but we are keeping an eye on the IWM for confirmation.

We didn’t get that yet. As a matter of fact the IWM just reached up to touch the top trendline, but never moved into the green area we have been watching.

It’s hard to say what will happen this week, but with the indexes up every day last week, it would not surprise me to see a little profit taking.

Friday, which was Quad Opex day was very strange if you ask me. I saw a lot of unusual action and the stocks that made the biggest gains were in the most hated sectors – solars, coal, shippers, etc.

Are we seeing the beginning of sector rotation into these areas or is it the last gasp, where money goes into the most beat-down “dogs”?

I guess we’ll have to see how it plays out this week. There are a lot of strange undercurrents at this point in time and it should get interesting from here.

Here’s a 60-minute chart of the IWM that points out the levels we are watching. An eventual move into and through the green area would confirm “all systems go”, but we might get a little “backing and filling” first. Perhaps even a pullback to the mid-point of the larger sideways channel, gasp!

It’s pretty much struggling with the highs there right?

The market can and will go down on any given day. A drift back to the mid point of the pattern wouldn’t be a big deal at all.

We shall see…

I thought it would be interesting to revisit and review all the trade setups I posted on last weeks blog.

I’m not sure how closely you follow the setups and if you review them at the end of the week so I thought that might be interesting.

Here are the trade setups I posted here last week and how they played out…

I have added notes to all the charts below and I have a link to the original setup above each one (images open in a new tab).

BKI original setup <—click here to see what it looked like last week

CALX original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

CTB original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

DANG original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

FRX original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

HCSG original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

HSP original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

HST original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

INAP original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

INCY original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

INFA original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

LF original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

MSPD original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

RLD original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

SUNH original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

TEVA original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

VECO original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

XXIA original chart <—click here to see what it looked like last week

So there you have it. An interesting review of all the trade setups from last weeks Research Lab blog and how they ended the week.

Some of those stocks might still be good for the watchlist gong forward and others, perhaps not.

Ok…so now on to some new setups that have my interest going into this week.

I could have gone on and on, but wanted to keep the number at a reasonable level in case I decide to “review” them next week. That was an extraordinary amount of work…

As always, some of these setups will fill and some won’t. Some might break out then throw-back and some might reverse.

Be sure to add the ones you like to a watchlist in your charting software and follow them closely.

Use stops that make sense, based on the chart and your risk-tolerance.

IF the market decides to pull back or acts weak, these may not fill or work as planned so always be cautious, especially after the run-up we just had.

Lastly, I wanted to let you know that we are making significant progress on the brand-new “Research Lab 2012”.

I’m already using it on my iPad on a daily basis and soon we will have all the modules integrated.

Click Here for a look at the current Home page interface.

As many of you have asked for recently – yes, there will be email alerts in the new version when a Trade Plan is staged on the waiting page.

Also, this blog will be be moved into the new interface and will have a new look – very fresh and clean.

Every section of the Research Lab is being reconstructed using “state-of-the-art” programming and technology and I am really excited about it.

Some of you have been with us since the original launch back in 2008 and I think that you will really like the big upgrade.

Like I said last week, the goal is “platform and device independent”, with a simpler and cleaner layout. Stay tuned…

Be sure to join us at the market open for the Live Broadcast this Monday-Wednesday-Friday in the Research Lab.

It should be quite exciting…

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Mar

9

Investing Systems Research Lab Blog for Week of March 12th, 2012

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Last weekend I started the post with a warning…

Subsequently we witnessed the significant “red candle” that transpired Tuesday.

If my warning last weekend encouraged you to be a bit cautious out of the starting gate last week, then I did my job.

If you sat on your hands Monday and Tuesday, congratulations.

If you read last weeks post, you will know why I didn’t initiate any new swing trades this week.

We have discussed the “buy the dip” guys and I have to say they were very aggressive…

Ahh, but last week was last week – and Greece didn’t default until late Friday. Literally just a few hours ago as I write this…

It’s about to get even more interesting…

I took the liberty of jotting some notes on a 60-minute chart of the Russell 2000.

Please take a look and see what you think.

As you know, throughout the week we focus on the S&P 500 as “the market”, but on the weekends I like to use the Russell. It frequently leads the market and it’s behavior seems most representative of the broader range of stocks.

Technically speaking, until and unless this market is able to break those highs, I want to be in defensive mode.

I can actually see about 4-5 different possibilities of how it plays out on the chart above. We’ll discuss those next week.

I do know this.

There is a battle that will rage between the green and red arrows above and it will be fun to watch it play out.

I’m still scratching my head over the big rally off Tuesday’s low. Not sure what to make of it.

Were the dips buyers geniuses?

Was it a mistake to get stopped out of positions last week?

Is “reversion to the mean” still valid and on what timeframe?

Is there an invisible hand behind the scenes with the diabolical intention of driving this market higher?

Or do they plan to pull the “magic carpet” out from under it when everyone’s least expecting?

Didn’t the indexes hold above or bounce off the key moving averages?

I could go on and on with the questions, but we will save that for next week’s show, where we can ponder the situation in real-time.

Before I get to the “stocks to watch” I wanted to show you something very cool…

As you members know, behind the scenes we are building the new version of the Research Lab.

It is going to be a significant leap forward as far as the technology and capabilities, but I won’t go into details here.

Here’s a screenshot of the current iteration of the Home page: (click image to enlarge)

I’m liking the streamlined interface, but the real magic will be behind the scenes.

Our ultimate goal is to make the Research Lab experience both platform and device independent.

With some cool new features of course, like email alerts and such.

Ok, Enough reading for now. Let’s look at some pictures.

While the overall market has me on pins and needles, I have to say that I haven’t seen so many good “potential” trade setups in a very long time.

Actually, perhaps time is speeding up and compressing and the setups I thought would take a couple weeks to manifest just took a few days.

Here’s a few on my radar and I haven’t really even dug into the scans yet…hmm.

There are Daily charts:

So there you have it, a handfull of stocks with potential if the market “acts well”.

As always, the standard disclaimer and warnings go with the above charts. Anything can happen and I never assume just because a stock "breaks out” it will carry.

Some will fill and reverse, some will fill and go up. Some won’t fill and some will trade “all over the map”.

I’m actually finding myself adjusting the trendlines, patterns, support and resistance on most of stocks in my watchlists after last week’s “pullback”.

I suppose if “they” continue to push this market higher, perhaps the “animal spirits” are just getting started.

On the other hand, if dark forces prevail, and the market loses the recent lows, then all bets are off.

There are dozens of cross-currents at the moment and a case could be made either way.

So join us next week in the live room of the Research Lab and we will find you some good stock trades as always.

I actually have a new trick up my sleeve…

I can’t wait for the market to open!

More about that next time.

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