Mar

Investing Systems Research Lab – Members Update March 6th, 2010

Welcome Back Members…it was quite the interesting week. I hope you joined us for the Live Broadcasts at the market open.

This morning we discussed GMO (General Moly) shortly after the open (along with other picks that did quite well).

Wow. All it takes is one of these to make your day. As you know this is fairly typical of the Low Priced scan.

For those of you more interested in our swing-trades, let’s take a quick review of the Trade Plans from February:

Not too shabby, I must say. Log into the Research Lab to see the detailed Trade Plan Charts on these.

You can also read back several posts on this blog to see some of the set-ups.

We still have one Open Plan from Feb, TLAB which hit Target 2 today. When it finally closes it will go into Feb stats.

Notice the secondary entry on the trendline break for anyone that missed the initial entry.

Now that TLAB has hit Target 2, the stop has been raised to the Entry price of $6.80, with the idea that most of the profits have already been taken. Originally we suggested selling 1/2 at Target 1, which hit two days after the entry as you see on the chart above.

We like to show you a different perspective on our trades in this blog where we have more flexibility with the charts. The Live Trade Plan Charts don’t always show the bigger picture.

Here is a great example:

This trade is on the Waiting Trade Plans page from yesterday and we will probably give it another couple sessions to see if it fills. Remember, Waiting trades only fill if they hit the exact Entry price.

By the way, this Blog is intended for Investing Systems Research Lab Members only. If you are a guest and have taken any of these trades, please show your appreciation and get your Trading Karma straight by supporting our Research Lab with at least the $100 “ala carte” months membership.

http://www.the-market-toolbox.com/join.html

With the daily stock picks and the Trade Plans we are quite confident that you want to be “on the inside”, even with the nominal fee for admission.

I am hesitant to post any of the trades we are watching for next week as they have not been loaded in the Trade Plans yet. They are simply ideas and will require more analysis.

Also, our system has not run the main updates to find next weeks trades, so these are just to show you for fun. Call it some “stocks to watch”.

CYTX – Keep a close eye for a break-out above the green line and into the yellow ellipse.

This seems like a fairly risky stock, and perhaps we are a bit premature, but then again…

I would almost prefer another week of consolidation and then a break above the green horizontal line.

I will throw in one more on the watchlist, but this is not going to be a Trade Plan next week as I am certain we will find much higher probability set-ups.

MSPD was the first Trade Plan of the year in 2010. Notice the green arrow and ellipse at the bottom left of the chart indicating the Entry.

It is still on the watchlist but we think perhaps we will get a better entry on this down the road and not necessarily next week.

You want a speculative stock? Sure, why not.

The chart tells it all. We want to watch this stock as it moves toward the inevitable apex of the triangle. If and when it breaks out to the upside through the green trendline, we consider that a good speculative entry. The stop loss would be placed at the red line, say $1.70. If the stock fell below the red line before it exceeds the green line, then the trade is “no bien” and discarded in the heap of ones that didn’t “behave”.

As a value-added service for our Members I thought I would share some interesting information I stumbled across.

Below you will find Goldman Sachs’ VIP List with the name of the stock followed by the number of hedge funds that own that stock in their top ten holdings.

Apple (AAPL): 67 hedge funds hold it as a top ten holding
Pfizer (PFE): 45
Bank of America (BAC): 37
Google (GOOG): 37
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 36
Microsoft (MSFT): 36
Mastercard (MA): 29
DirecTV (DTV): 27
Wells Fargo (WFC): 27
CVS Caremark (CVS): 24
Citigroup (C): 23
Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 23
Monsanto (MON): 23
Visa (V): 23
Cisco Systems (CSCO): 21
Walmart (WMT): 21
Oracle (ORCL): 18
Qualcomm (QCOM): 18
Exxon Mobil (XOM): 18
Ebay (EBAY): 17
Wellpoint (WLP): 17
Intel (INTC): 16
Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN): 16
Merck (MRK): 16
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 15
Liberty Media (LSTZA): 15
Amazon (AMZN): 14
Apache (APA): 14
EMC (EMC): 14
Express Scripts (ESRX): 14
Ford Motor (F): 14
IBM (IBM): 14
Lear (LEA): 14
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA): 14
Yahoo (YHOO): 14
Crown Castle (CCI): 13
McDonald’s (MCD): 13
Transocean (RIG): 13
Barrick Gold (ABX): 12
SBA Communications (SBAC): 12
US Bancorp (USB): 12
Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 11
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): 11
Philip Morris International (PM): 11
Transdigm Group (TDG): 11
Target (TGT): 11
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): 11
American Tower (AMT): 10
Comcast (CMCSA): 10
Freeport McMoran (FCX): 10

Of the stocks mentioned, there are a handful that are brand new additions to Goldman’s VIP list. This means that enough hedge funds have brought their stakes in the company up to a top 10 position in their respective portfolios. Positions that hedgies added largely to in the fourth quarter include: Wells Fargo (WFC), Mead Johnson (MJN), Merck (MRK), Liberty Media (LSTZA), Amazon (AMZN), Apache (APA), IBM (IBM), Lear (LEA), Crown Castle (CCI), SBA Communications (SBAC), US Bancorp (USB), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Target (TGT), American Tower (AMT), and Freeport McMoran (FCX).
Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/03/goldman-sachs-vip-list-most-important.html#ixzz0hMn4oajm

Lastly, I wanted to demonstrate the value of the Earnings Scan with a Widget View from today.

The Widgets are excellent in that they show the Top-10 picks form each scan in real-time each day along with live 15-minute charts.

The Earnings list consists of stocks that have released in the past 3 days that are making a significant move from the Open. If you get a chance pull up the chart on these so you can see how they did today and over the past few days. You will want to see the move in SXCI yesterday where it went from 52 to 60. Then it was a pick again today at 58.92 and closed at 62, wow. Shows you what an earnings release can do.

Ok, so next week we will do another “big picture” look at the overall market. As you know, the past three weeks we have been quite constructive on the market as the S&P managed to close above the 30-week moving average and the 10-week is still above the 30-week (see prior posts).

So that’s it folks. Enjoy your weekend and I hope you locked in a bunch of profits last week because we are very likely to turn negative in the short-term. The market is quite overbought at this point. Next week will be very tricky so be sure to join us in the Live Broadcast Monday morning.

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